At least half a dozen of the 2020 drivers are confirmed for next season, but many have not yet finalised deals. 2021 had the potential to be a driver merry-go-round, but now it looks set to be calmer than previously imagined. Part 1 will look at five teams - Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Renault and Racing Point.
2021 would have beckoned the start of a new era of cleaner aerodynamics, fairer regulations and the hopeful beginning of closer on-track battles. Due to the economic impact of the pandemic, it was inevitable the regulations aimed at breathing new life into the sport would be delayed until 2022. Team stability into next year is now more advantageous and the market seems less out of sorts. Nevertheless, there have been prompt moves from Ferrari to secure Carlos Sainz Jr. to partner Charles Leclerc, replacing Sebastian Vettel who will depart the Scuderia at the end of the season. Daniel Ricciardo was plucked from his underwhelming Renault seat, to form the ultra-charismatic and very exciting duo with Lando Norris, at the ever-evolving McLaren. Perez and Stroll will continue at the 2021 Aston Martin branded Racing Point, whilst Max Verstappen stays put at Red Bull, setting up a long-term duel with Ferrari's Leclerc once the likes of Hamilton and Vettel bow out.
The most intriguing teams are Mercedes and Renault. Unlike Ferrari and McLaren, these two will likely take their time to announce their line-ups. It's quite staggering how Mercedes and Toto Wolff have still not managed to extend Lewis Hamilton's contract, if we understand he wishes to continue. We heard how Wolff stated it had yet to be discussed between the two parties, but he was sure it would be solved when the time is right. It's unlikely Hamilton would quit and if victorious in 2020, surely he'd go all out in 2021 to become the all-time-great, statistically.
Presuming Hamilton renews, Valtteri Bottas arguably occupies the 2nd most unsafe seat on the grid. Despite his ability, experience and compliance in being Mercedes No.2, should Wolff prioritise the long-term line-up? It would not be a surprise to see Bottas sign another 1-2 year contract, especially if he ups his game in 2020. Yet it is hard to imagine Wolff not wanting to promote George Russell (who he manages) to form a fresher-looking, British pairing. Unless Bottas finishes a close 2nd in the WDC or wins the title, I personally would like to see Russell given the call up. George is part of the new generation in Formula 1 - he has the potential to command a team like Max and Charles. Vettel is an unlikely option, I believe he could only move there if Hamilton leaves - almost impossible. It would be naïve to think Mercedes have not got options on Esteban Ocon, another rising star, if desired. At least Mercedes are not short of options!
Sainz out, Ricciardo in, Hulkenburg out, Ocon in, Ricciardo out, who's next? Renault have not been short of driver changes since 2018 but with a team struggling to put together a strong car that can top the midfield, Cyril Abiteboul now is on the hunt for yet another driver for 2021. Ricciardo's relatively short and uneventful time at Enstone will want to be forgotten by all parties at the end of 2020. Greater chances of success appear destined at McLaren, so who will partner Ocon? Speculation has been centred on Fernando Alonso, the 2-time world champion is a challenging character and evidently a handful. We hear he wants to return, but does he really? Alonso will know that Renault cannot perform miracles and compete for podiums any time soon and even though Abiteboul may be willing to pay a huge sum for his services, why do it? Why sign a elder statesman who can cause friction in an underperforming team? Unless Fernando simply wants to race in F1 again and he may be satisfied with the situation, I think a return would be a mistake.
Esteban Ocon has the potential to be a clear No.1 driver at a works team. A young, exciting and charismatic French driver at Renault, what more could they want? He rattled Sergio Perez at Racing Point and despite a year out he is still scouted by Mercedes and is rapid on track. We have not seen Ocon develop fully and I think his time will come at Renault. Why not let Esteban flourish and bring in a driver who can test him but not beat him? If what I think will happen - Russell to Mercedes, I can see Bottas shifting to Renault. With his experience he could lead the team through its rebuilding project and arguably, without the pressure from Hamilton, really prove what he is capable of. Having said that, Ocon would still push him competitively. 2020 is a big test for Esteban, perform on par or outperform Ricciardo and it would demonstrate his ability to be their lead driver and give stability to Renault. Alternatively, if Bottas renews then Renault either goes for Alonso or may look at its youth academy to Guanyu Zhou, who looks first in line if successful in Formula 2, or could Pierre Gasly be thrown in as a wildcard option?
The breakdown at Ferrari for Sebastian Vettel sparked his departure - too many mistakes on-track, poor relations with the team and his teammate were more than enough for him to call it a day. Is it the end of Vettel in Formula 1, I would like to think not. No driver becomes a 4-time world champion without extreme talent and ability on and off the track, at the moment it just isn't happening for him unfortunately. Often forgotten are some brilliant victories for Ferrari and being the closest challenger to Hamilton in 2017 and 2018 mostly rued for costly team and driver mistakes. His time in red has not been a 'failure'. I guess he will take a sabbatical year to spend time with his family, and if a top seat rears its head for 2022 and he wants to return, I can imagine that. Thinking outside the box, if Aston Martin really hit the ground running as the new regulations come into force and we all know Lawrence Stroll is pumping millions into the team, maybe they too can compete near the front and could attract a high-calibre driver like Vettel. Renault's vacant seat would be unappealing.
Despite being a young pairing, Leclerc/Sainz is promising for the future. Ferrari may have in mind a clear No.1/No.2 scenario, reminiscent of Schumacher/Barrichello or Alonso/Massa, but I don't think Carlos would want to play that game. Yes Charles is probably quicker but the meteoric rise of Sainz over recent years is remarkable - super solid on a Sunday and at his best he will push Leclerc far - how will Leclerc and more importantly Ferrari, manage the two when it gets competitive and race wins or championships are at stake? Will Mercedes have noticed that when a talented young-gun like Leclerc gets promoted, it can cause friction and will that influence their decision if they want Russell alongside Lewis?
Lastly, Perez remains an all-round reliable and experienced mainstay at Racing Point. I would probably put money on him getting on a podium this year, on pace. His chances of a top seat have diminished over several years and he will likely be at the helm to see Aston Martin settle into the team. Lance Stroll continues to be a talking point. I am on the fence, but I am desperate for him to prove that he fully deserves his seat in a car that looks seriously competitive. He has shown flashes of qualifying brilliance; Monza in the wet comes to mind but apart from his dream podium in Baku, at Racing Point he is yet to stake his claim as a top driver. He is still young, but with his father a vital financial figure within the team, Lance needs to prove the doubters wrong. It is mightily awkward however, as looking longer term it seems like this pairing may never change as Mr. Stroll has the leverage to keep Lance in pink. What influence will the new sponsor have on how they operate, where may their young drivers come from, and I will finish with this: how long will it be before an elite driver is desired by Aston Martin, and who will leave the team first, Perez or Stroll?
Matt
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